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COLLECTION

Critical Raw Materials

The European Union’s green and digital transitions are fundamentally dependent on a secure supply of Critical Raw Materials (CRMs). These materials form the bedrock of Europe’s industrial competitiveness, climate leadership, and strategic autonomy. However, the quest to end dependency on fossil fuels is creating a new dependency on critical minerals and metals, placing them at the heart of a complex geopolitical landscape.

About
this collection

Our interactive map below details specific Critical Raw Materials (CRM) per geographic areas, minerals extracted, and their critical end-uses, while directly linking these supply chains to our experts’ analysis and policy recommendations. This resource is designed to facilitate a wide analysis for building resilient, and mutually beneficial partnerships in the CRM sector.

Rationale & Regional Scope : This collection launches with a diverse selection of case studies designed to act as a microcosm of the global supply chain. By covering established mining powerhouses, the dominant global processor, and emerging economies in the Global South, we aim to explore how EU strategic instruments, such as the Global Gateway and the Critical Raw Materials Act, must adapt to contrasting local realities, from security imperatives in Ukraine to industrial aspirations in Africa. This initial selection serves as a foundation; the collection is conceived as a living resource and will expand in the coming months to feature additional regions.

The Geopolitics
of Dependency

The EU's primary vulnerability lies not in the global scarcity of minerals, but in the dangerous concentration of their processing and refining, which is overwhelmingly dominated by China. This dominance, however, offers a stark lesson: Beijing's success in vertically integrating infrastructure, finance, and extraction through to downstream manufacturing serves as a strategic playbook. The EU is now attempting to adapt for its own partnerships.

Currently, this concentration creates a strategic choke point, enabling the "weaponisation of dependencies". Beijing escalated a trade clash by announcing sweeping export controls in October 2025, targeting not only an expanded list of rare earth elements to its new export-licensing regime but also computer chips required by carmakers in Europe. These measures, which threatened to halt production in key European industries, showed China's willingness to control the global green technology supply chain.

While China announced a sudden suspension of some of these new controls on November 7, 2025, the volatility underscores the EUs structural predicament: its industrial ambitions remain critically exposed.

This vulnerability was laid bare in late 2025 by a new “Sovereignty Paradox,” in which the EU’s strategic autonomy ambition is increasingly trapped between US industrial policy and Chinese statecraft. While the EU successfully designated its first 47 “Strategic Projects” in March 2025 to boost domestic capacity, a sustained crash in global lithium and nickel prices (down ~80% from peaks) orchestrated by Chinese oversupply among other things, has rendered many Western projects financially precarious.

The EU's Response:
The Critical Raw Materials Act (CRMA)

The CRMA is the EU’s core legislative framework to address these vulnerabilities. It establishes clear priorities by defining lists of “critical” and “strategic” materials and sets ambitious benchmarks for 2030 to bolster domestic extraction, processing, and recycling. The Act also introduces “Strategic Projects” which will benefit from streamlined permitting and facilitated access to finance, aiming to de-risk and encourage private investment in European value chains. However, the designation of these projects has triggered immediate “implementation wars,” most notably in Portugal and Serbia, proving that while the CRMA can speed up permits, it cannot fast-track social license.

Beyond Borders:
Strategic Partnerships

Recognising that domestic capacity alone is insufficient, the EU’s strategy has a crucial external dimension. To meet the diversification benchmark of sourcing no more than 65% of any strategic raw material from a single country, the EU is pursuing a proactive “raw materials diplomacy.” 

This involves building Strategic Partnerships with producer countries, leveraging trade agreements, and deploying the Global Gateway to finance infrastructure projects that enhance the resilience of global supply chains.

A Development-Centric Approach

For the EU’s strategy to be sustainable, it must transcend a purely extractive logic. Members’ research highlights that a successful approach must align the EU’s quest for security of supply with the development aspirations of its partners. 

This means framing the CRM challenge as a shared opportunity, actively supporting local value addition and green industrialisation in resource-rich countries. A partnership that supports African nations moving up the value chain from mining to processing and manufacturing, is not just a development objective but a core, long-term security strategy for the EU.

ETTG Publications on
Critical Raw Materials

Explore ETTG analysis on the complex geopolitics and development dimensions of global mineral value chains.

Green industrialisation in an age of disruption: Africa, Europe and the global economy

Alfonso Medinilla, Koen Dekeyser and Poorva Karkare highlight the findings of a multi-year research programme on the green...

An African battery value chain to kickstart green industrialisation

Guinea holds an estimated 40 billion tons of bauxite reserves, accounting for approximately one-third of global reserves. To add value to this critical...

Resource nationalism in the age of green industrialisation

The critical raw materials essential for driving the global green transition are now at the forefront of geopolitical concerns, as some governments...

The Lobito Corridor: Between European geopolitics and African agency

The Lobito Corridor, connecting the DRC, Zambia and Angola, is often discussed in terms of geopolitical competition – with the EU and...

The EU’s partnerships around critical raw materials: Do its ambitions match reality?

The EU heavily relies on critical raw material imports but faces a strategic dilemma: how to secure these resources amid strained transatlantic...

The EU’s playbook for African minerals amid China’s dominance

With China remaining dominant in the field of critical raw materials, Poorva Karkare and Karim Karaki argue that the EU can draw...

Environmental peacebuilding as a climate-security priority for the EU – Examples from the Sahel

Environmental peacebuilding can help address the Sahel’s interlinked crises of conflict, climate change and fragility. Drawing on practical examples...

Skills training to support Guinea’s industrial transformation

Guinea holds an estimated 40 billion tons of bauxite reserves, accounting for approximately one-third of global reserves. To add value to this critical...

The EU needs African resources for its green transition: Can it circumvent China?

The EU's green and digital ambitions depend on a stable supply of critical raw materials like lithium, cobalt and graphite. With growing concerns...

Green industrialisation: Leveraging critical raw materials for an African battery value chain

African countries are exploring opportunities to add more value to their critical raw materials for green industrialisation. This paper assesses the potential for an African...

The geography of green iron and steel: New opportunities for Europe and North Africa

Steel – accounting for 8% of global emissions – is a critical sector in which the technology exists to decarbonise production...

A call for realignment on Africa-Europe climate and energy cooperation

Ahead of the AU-EU summit, Africa and Europe share an interest in rebuilding their climate and energy partnership authors outline five recommendations...

Geopolitical risk: raw materials and technological dependence

In 1992 the father of China’s economic revolution, Deng Xiaoping, said that ‘the Middle East has the oil, but China has the rare earths’. Rare earths...

Exploring where and how to strengthen EU-LAC cooperation on climate action and the just energy transition: a focus on Colombia and Chile

This analysis outlines some of the main areas of cooperation between the EU and Colombia and Chile, respectively, on climate change and the just...

Dissecting the Draghi Report

The Elcano Team contributes to the debate on the future of European competitiveness by analysing the 176 proposals of the Draghi Report.

Investing for a more assertive digital and clean European industry

While the European Commission's 2019-2024 mandate focused on the "twin green and digital transition," the European narrative has ...

Towards an integrated EU-Latin America economic space

The convergence of a fragmented geopolitics , the protectionist shift in the United States, and the growing US-China rivalry presents...

Strategic Security and Critical Raw Materials: The Role of the European Investment Bank

A secure supply of critical raw materials (CRMs) is crucial for the realisation of the European Union’s energy transition. To increase domestic...

How the G7 Can Effectively Back Africa’s Twin Goal of Energy Access and Transition

At the Africa Climate Summit held in Kenya in 2023, African heads of state and government produced the Nairobi Declaration,[1] which is now the basis...

Critical Raw Materials, Economic Statecraft and Europe’s Dependence on China

The People’s Republic of China (PRC) holds a dominant position along wide swaths of critical mineral and technology value chains that...

EU and Italian De-risking Strategies for Energy Transition: Critical Raw Materials

I governi e gli addetti al settore sono diventati in generale consapevoli della dimensione relativa alle materie prime per la transizione verde...

Reality Check: The Regulatory Dimension of the EU De-risking Strategy for Critical Raw Materials and Semiconductors

Le catene di approvvigionamento globali sono soggette a crescenti shock geopolitici, quindi l’Unione europea sta ricalibrando la propria...

Can South Africa’s G20 Moment Consolidate Efforts on Just Mineral Supply Chains?

To assert greater agency over its vast resources and critical minerals (CRMs) – crucial for the world’s energy and digital transitions – African countries look at the first African-led G20 as a big...

The Diplomacy of Survival: Kyiv’s War Beyond the Battlefield

When Russia launched its full-scale invasion in February 2022, Kyiv found itself fighting on multiple fronts: the battlefield, the information sphere...

European battery regulation: an exemplary step forward in more ways than one

The European Union has recently adopted a regulation to make batteries “greener”, particularly those used for electric vehicles...

Critical metals for electric vehicle batteries: how to control demand

The necessary electrification of the car fleet as part of the ecological transition must be accompanied by a major shift towards greater sufficiency...

Leveraging Green Industrialisation for a Just Transition: Africa-Europe Cooperation

Citation Barchiche, D., Medinilla, A., Kilelu, C., Treyer, S., Okereke, C. (2024). Leveraging Green Industrialisation for a Just Transition...

After US elections, Africa and Europe should strengthen partnership for green industrialization

Amutually beneficial industrial partnership between Europe and Africa has long been recognized as essential for effective climate action...

Aligning decarbonization, circularity and competitiveness in Europe’s automotive industry

In January 2025, the EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen launched a Strategic Dialogue on the Future of the...

New industrial policies: lessons for the EU and the Clean Industrial Deal

This Study analyzes the industrial policies pursued in 10 countries (Germany, China, South Korea, Spain, the United States, France, Italy, Japan, Poland and Sweden)...

Green jobs and green economic development in Kigali’s construction value chain: evidence from a firm survey

Green, circular buildings and their construction are essential for climate change mitigation and resource efficiency. However, the impact of a systematic...

From mines to markets: gravity model insights on critical raw material trade

Access to critical raw materials (CRMs) is increasingly being shaped by geopolitical dynamics, fuelling a global competition for supply security...

Achieving strategic autonomy: critical raw materials and low-emission hydrogen

The agreed shift towards a net zero industry in Europe and elsewhere increases demand for critical raw materials (CRMs) and low-emission...

EU trade policy and geopolitics Challenges for the new EU

Bonn, 2 September 2024. The EU has created numerous new unilateral trade and investment instruments to reposition itself in an environment...

CRMs in EU trade discourse: navigating a trilemma in times of geopolitical competition

Critical minerals (CMs) have become a strategic priority for the European Union (EU) amid the green and digital transitions. These resources...

From Mines to Markets Gravity Model Insights on Critical Raw Material Trade

Access to critical raw materials (CRMs) is increasingly being shaped by geopolitical dynamics, fuelling a global competition for supply security. This paper applies the gravity...

Critical minerals, critical moment: Africa’s role in the AI revolution

When discussing advances in Artificial Intelligence (AI) models, whether they are niche analytical tools or Large Language Models (LLM) such as...

China’s evolving role in Africa’s energy transition - Overseas trade and investment in Kenya, Mozambique and South Africa

China has become a major global player in energy finance, infrastructure development and clean technology exports. This report explores the...

Building resilient and mutually beneficial critical raw materials supply chains

Co-hosted by ODI Europe and the European Climate Foundation, the Second International Climate, Trade and Industrial Policy Dialogue brought together...

Think Change episode 71: the critical minerals race – who stands to benefit?

Minerals like lithium, cobalt and rare earth are not just commodities. They are strategic assets which are shaping global power and the future of the...

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